This is what no one ever mentions when it comes to ASEAN’s proposed power grid integration: it’s been “almost there” for decades. Then came the original plan: completion by 2020. Now we’re in 2025. It’s been reset to 2045. That’s not a delay. That’s realizing it’s not just hard—but impossible. Big talk is finally underway when it comes to Southeast Asia’s interconnectivity in the power grid.
Trust building remains a fundamental challenge across borders
“What the grid requires is ‘an ASEAN-wide power grid authority that promotes integration.’ And that is easy to say,” according to Tony Segadelli of Owl Energy Consultants. “Until you consider the implications. To have ten totally different countries with ten totally different sets of regulations concerning energy policies and politics? Yeah, good luck with that.”
The comparison to the EU just keeps rearing its head. But it’s not applicable. A union between such vastly different economies with such a large gap between the rich and the poor is just not possible. And let’s not forget that it took the EU decades to reach its level. Also, it is highly unlikely that countries like Singapore would simply slot their superior grid management systems into not-so-sophisticated Myanmar.
Experience in the import of electricity to Bangladesh from India, ever since 2013, indicates that trust builds slowly. It went just 200 megawatts at first because no one thought it could happen. But it is not easy to develop such relationships to carry out large-scale projects in neighboring countries.
It is no longer a question of whether Asia’s economies will develop
A question that is obviously pertinent, and one that was put by Edgare Kerkwijk of Asia Wind Energy Association: “So who is going to export their energy to their neighbor if they require it themselves?” This gets to the heart of the issue. When it boils down to it, energy security will always take precedence over regional co-operation. It makes little sense to export energy if it means going dark at home.
Key integration issues include:
- Mismatches between grid standards and technology specifications
- Differences in Regulations among the Ten Member Countries
- Energy security is posing a non-extraction intention
- Requires huge infrastructure outlays
The rise of renewable energy makes it even more complex. Variable outputs of renewable energy cause instabilities in the grid. Andre Susanto of Quantum Power Asia recommends looking at the grid as a “backbone transmission system,” not fully integrating them yet, allowing countries to “plug in” when they need to. This makes sense and could be more effective at implementing a sort of standardization within the region.
Bilateral agreements could produce a patchwork outcome
Perhaps the high ambition of a single ASEAN grid is simply the wrong model. Segadelli’s conclusion seems to have a sense of truth to it: “It’s going to be an awful lot of bilaterals, and by the end of it, it’s going to have sewn a beautiful quilt.” This seems to be the only way in which regional integration is likely to take place. The LTMS project (hydropower energy export route from Laos through Thailand and then Malaysia to Singapore) is one such initiative that ensures that bilateral partnerships can also bear fruit if there is economic viability.
“It had to be finished by 2020. It’s now 2025, and it’s supposed to be finished by 2045,” Segadelli is quoted as saying, pointing out the delays in the growth of the regional grid.
The truth is that the power grid in ASEAN will likely look like a series of bilateral or trilateral arrangements rather than one coordinated one. This is not a failure – it is merely a realization of the realities. The “beautiful quilt” strategy may take longer to implement, and it is certainly more likely to succeed than federal coordination.