The international relations landscape has been turbulent in recent days, as diplomatic discussions between Europe and Iran have intensified again. Concerns about Iran’s nuclear program have led European powers to discuss possible measures, one of which is a snapback measure, which could restore long-standing UN sanctions within days. If this measure is taken, it will impact Middle East politics and global energy and security markets.
What is the snapback mechanism, and why is it important?
The snapback mechanism is a clause created within the 2015 nuclear agreement that allows countries to reactivate certain UN sanctions in cases of nuclear weapons production. If Iran fails to comply with the current agreement, the country has the right to “pull the emergency button,” reversing past concessions and preventing Iran from taking action.
For the European bloc countries, activating this mechanism is a way to prevent Iran from continuing to expand its stockpile of enriched uranium in this nuclear weapons manufacturing process, which currently operates without any type of control or oversight. Inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have currently been suspended following attacks on some Iranian facilities in June of this year. This action alone was enough to create a climate of distrust in the international political landscape.
Comments within diplomatic circles suggest that this action poses a risk, as it occurs without monitoring, and that Iran could thus end up concealing certain technological advances in nuclear weapons, capable of shifting the balance of power in the region in a short space of time. The so-called “E3” — the diplomatic union of the powers the United Kingdom, France, and Germany — views this current situation as a race against time, before the current agreements expire and Iran gains nuclear weapons power.
Iran’s reactions to UN sanctions
The country believes the European bloc has no right to trigger these UN sanctions, especially since they have already failed to fulfill their own promises, considering the context of easing sanctions following the US withdrawal from the treaty in 2018.
Iranian authorities have classified this possible activation of the UN mechanism as a form of “disguised military attack,” and in response, should this scenario occur, they have already threatened retaliation. The Iranian parliament, which is dominated by and known as hard-liners, has even suggested that the country could abandon the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if the European bloc takes this step of imposing sanctions against Iran.
The role of allies in diplomatic tension
Within this delicate diplomatic context, some positions are crucial, such as the role of Russia and China. Both countries have already expressed opposition to any European move in the UN Security Council. Their reason for opposing the European countries’ actions is their view that a snapback would bring more instability to the region than a solution in itself. Relying on the support of Moscow and Beijing is highly strategic for Iran, since, if it fails to block the action, their opposition will politically weaken the maneuver.
Diplomacy and nuclear risk
The debate that the application of snapback has generated among countries in this international arena is not only for technical reasons, but also political. This action could raise suspicions, as it is driven by economic interests and, most importantly, the constant fear of a nuclear conflict in the Middle East.
Europe wants to take the lead and demonstrate its diplomatic relevance, while Iran wants to preserve its business and autonomy. Many factors are involved in this scenario, which goes beyond sanctions or simply unsupervised uranium enrichment; what the bloc’s countries want to do is prevent the world from moving toward a major nuclear crisis. The only thing left to do is observe the diplomatic scenario, and the expectation is for a less turbulent outcome than possible.