China is poised to experience an energy revolution in history, and according to Greenpeace East Asia, coal power production may reach its peak in 2025 at 5.55 trillion kWh. According to the most recent report prepared by the environmental organization, the emissions made by the power sector are capable of reaching their peak at 5.2 billion tonnes, and then proceed to experience a structural decline. This historic event would be able to save China up to 970 billion RMB and hasten the national shift to the prevalence of renewable energy.
The radical implementation of renewable energy speeds up the coal phase-out
A recent report by Greenpeace East Asia indicates that China can reach its power emissions of 5.2 billion tonnes in the year 2025, with the generation of coal power peaking at 5.55 trillion kWh. The report identified four cases of power transition in China, including national power low-carbon power transition goals, and future projections of power supply and demand between 2025 and 2035. Scenario 3 of them, with high-efficiency electrification and accelerated deployment of non-fossil energy, stands out as the most effective one. The scenario comprises an average power growth rate of 2.8 per annum in the 15th Five-Year Plan in China.
Under this, the main targets are to install 3100 GW of wind and solar and 270 GW of new energy storage by the year 2030. In this most aggressive case, the generation of coal power will reach the peak of 5.55 trillion kWh. By 2025, power sector carbon emission is bound to hit 5.2 billion tonnes before they level off at the plateau. This compares to 160 million tonnes, less than all three other scenarios.
Economic benefits are pushing an ambitious decarbonization scenario
In all the ambitious scenarios, the cost benefits are evident over the baseline scenarios. It may save a total of 110 to 400 billion RMB in the total costs of the power system by limiting coal dependence by 2025 and 2035. Savings are large even after taking into consideration the higher investments in renewables and flexible resources. It would save 670 to 970 billion RMB that would be wasted through over-investment, compared to accelerated electrification situations.
Nevertheless, in the first quarter of 2025, China approved 11.29 gigawatts of new coal power capacity. This was after the reduction of 62.24 GW in new coal-fired power plant approvals on a year-on-year basis in 2024. Gao Yuhe, the climate and energy project manager of Greenpeace East Asia, added that renewables can now provide new electricity needs in China with no problems at all.
Domestic energy transition is the key to global climate leadership
China announced its nationally determined contribution to the Paris Climate Accords at the Climate Summit of the United Nations General Assembly. The objectives are to cut economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10 percent below peak levels. In China, the target is to ensure that the proportion of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption goes above 30. The plan increases the installed wind and solar energy to 3,600 GW by 2035.
Yao Zhe is the Global Policy Adviser at Greenpeace East Asia, based in Beijing. He said that China can take a leading role in pulling the world into climate action. Its domestic decarbonization gains indicate massive potential to push energy transitions all over the world. It is, however, a target that is below expectations, but real realities will probably soar beyond paper targets as far as decarbonization is concerned.
The Chinese possibility of reaching coal power generation goals by 2025 is a watershed in global climate action, indicating that the largest emitter of carbon in the world can be seen to be leading by example. Compelling factors of faster decarbonization come with the economic gains of this system shift, as well as the factors of technological development. A successful outcome would change the energy situation in China and become an example to other countries that are still transitioning towards fast clean energy development.